Nate Silver: “Earlier than explaining the methodological change intimately, let me present you the influence on our nationwide polling common. Each Trump and Kamala Harris have gained floor versus yesterday’s mannequin run, the final one to incorporate Kennedy. Harris’s polling common has improved from 48.0 p.c yesterday to 48.8 p.c at present (+0.8), whereas Trump’s has elevated from 43.7 to 44.8 (+1.1).”
“First, sure, Trump has gained barely greater than Harris from the change, though it’s fairly minor, a web achieve of 0.3 proportion factors. And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a conference bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, She’s now forward by 4.0 factors within the nationwide polling common versus 2.3 factors when the DNC began.”
“Our greatest guess is that her lead will enhance additional, particularly given that just about not one of the polling was achieved after her sturdy acceptance speech on Thursday.”
