David Frum: “When sensible individuals clarify Biden’s unhealthy ballot numbers, they cite goal info in the actual world: inflation, crime, and so forth. But Obama had nearly an reverse set of info (no inflation in 2011!) — and received nearly precisely the identical ballot numbers.”
“My speculation: Obama/Biden ballot numbers in 2011 and 2023 inform us much less in regards to the world – extra in regards to the inherent issues of managing the Democratic coalition, which is at all times extra fractious and fissile than the (smaller) Republican coalition.”
Flashback to Nate Silver: Is Obama toast? Handicapping the 2012 election.
