On February 18, 2022, six days earlier than Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, then-United States President Joe Biden mentioned he was “satisfied” that Moscow had determined to invade Ukraine. When requested how he knew this, Biden mentioned, “Now we have a big intelligence functionality.”
On the time, Ukraine’s authorities below President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not sure about Biden’s prognosis, insisting {that a} full-scale invasion was unlikely.
Biden was proper, Ukraine was flawed.
For the reason that struggle broke out, the US has — along with billions of {dollars} in refined weaponry — shared intelligence with Ukraine utilizing its huge spying capabilities, serving to Kyiv each defensively and in plotting assaults on Russian forces.
That got here to a halt on Wednesday when US officers confirmed that President Donald Trump had ordered the suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv. The transfer got here two days after the US paused navy support to Ukraine, amid souring relations between Trump and Zelenskyy.
So simply how a lot has the US helped Ukraine with intelligence throughout the struggle? How a lot will the absence of US intelligence damage Ukraine? And may Europe step up and assist Ukraine out?
Here’s what we all know to date.
What occurred?
US officers have confirmed that Washington has paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine. This follows a number of US media shops reporting that Trump halted navy support to Kyiv, quoting unnamed US officers.
John Ratcliffe, director of the Central Intelligence Company (CIA), confirmed the intelligence pause in an interview with Fox Enterprise broadcast on Wednesday.
US Nationwide Safety Advisor Mike Waltz additionally confirmed the pause to reporters on Wednesday, the identical day. “Now we have taken a step again and are pausing and reviewing all facets of this relationship,” mentioned Waltz. He added that he has been having “good talks” on negotiations with Ukraine.
US officers have indicated that the pause on navy support and intelligence sharing might be lifted if there’s a diplomatic breakthrough between Trump and Zelenskyy.
“I believe we’re going to see motion in very brief order,” Waltz mentioned.
Why did the US minimize intelligence sharing with Ukraine?
Reporting from the White Home, Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher mentioned the reducing of intelligence sharing was “only a software to attempt to get Ukraine again to the desk”.
Fisher defined: “They [the US] additionally talked about stopping navy support to Ukraine, which the Ukrainians admit would hit their struggle efforts.”
“Clearly, simply the specter of these issues has labored. So once you hear from the nationwide safety adviser saying issues might be resumed briefly order, it appears to counsel that any affect on Ukraine could be restricted, to say the least, so long as peace talks actually appear to be on the horizon sooner moderately than later.”
How did we get right here?
Trump’s navy pause, and the newest halt in intelligence sharing, got here after rising tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy over the previous few weeks.
Trump has shifted US coverage on Ukraine, opening up direct discussions with Moscow on ending the struggle. In February, American and Russian officers met for talks hosted by Saudi Arabia, leaving Ukraine and its European allies out of the dialogue.
Within the days that adopted, Trump and Zelenskyy discovered themselves embroiled in a verbal brawl: Trump described Zelenskyy as a “dictator with out elections”, casting doubt on his approval rankings. Zelenskyy hit again, saying Trump was residing in a “disinformation area”.
On February 28, Zelenskyy met Trump, US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the Oval Workplace within the White Home. Trump and Vance accused Zelenskyy of not being grateful sufficient for the navy help that Washington supplies Kyiv. Days later, on Monday, Trump had suspended navy support.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy’s tone turned conciliatory, when he mentioned Ukraine was able to return to the negotiating desk. “We do actually worth how a lot America has accomplished to assist Ukraine preserve its sovereignty and independence,” he wrote in his X put up.
How has the US supported Ukraine with intelligence to date?
Even earlier than the start of the Russia-Ukraine struggle in February 2022, the US supported Ukraine with important intelligence.
The precise particulars and exactly how important US intelligence sharing has been to Ukraine have by no means been explicitly publicised, however a number of stories, officers and leaks level to 2 key areas the place it has been crucial.
The intelligence — primarily a mixture of satellite tv for pc imagery and alerts — permits Ukrainian forces to organize for incoming Russian strikes. It additionally helps them monitor Russian troop actions and the positions of their bases, enabling Ukrainian forces to deploy missiles — together with long-range projectiles — towards them. This contains strikes inside Russian territory utilizing long-range weapons corresponding to ATACMS and HIMARS despatched by Ukraine’s Western allies.
“America can present Ukraine the coordinates or satellite tv for pc imagery of the place the Russian logistical centres are situated, after which Ukraine can use that info to destroy them,” Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher on the Defence Research Division at King’s School London, instructed Al Jazeera.
“You want that info from the Ukrainian perspective with a purpose to goal hostile goals like ammunition depots and logistical hubs.”
However there’s extra.
In February 2024, a New York Occasions investigation revealed that, after a command centre of the Ukrainian navy was destroyed within the months after Russia’s full-scale invasion, an underground bunker was constructed to interchange it. On this bunker, Ukrainian troopers monitor Russian spy satellites and pay attention to conversations among the many Russian navy. The bottom is sort of totally financed and partly outfitted by the CIA, the Occasions reported.
The report added that there are a number of CIA-supported spy bases in Ukraine, together with at 12 secret places alongside the Russian border.
The investigation additional revealed that round 2016, the CIA started coaching an elite Ukrainian commando drive, dubbed Unit 2245, which seized Russian drones and communications tools. These units would then be reverse-engineered by the CIA to get to decode Moscow’s encryption. One of many educated officers of 2245 was Kyrylo Budanov, who’s now Ukraine’s chief of navy intelligence.
Will the intelligence pause have an effect on Ukraine’s combating skills?
It already has.
Reporting from Ukraine, Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford mentioned he had spoken with a Ukrainian commander in a unit near the entrance line.
“He mentioned that his unit and lots of like him proper the best way alongside that 1,300km [808 miles] entrance line within the east and south of Ukraine relied on American intelligence gathering for round 90 % of the intelligence work that’s accomplished,” Stratford mentioned. “He mentioned that they acquired no assist right this moment and that certainly the People appear to have turned that system off.”
Ukraine makes use of US intelligence for a variety of functions, Stratford urged — together with, as an illustration, for its Patriot missile system, which is crucial to Kyiv’s skills to knock down incoming Russian ballistic missiles.
Can Europe assist fill Ukraine’s intelligence blindspot?
Partly.
European nations too have spy satellites that may provide some imagery — however it’s unclear whether or not they’re attuned to offering the type of intelligence that Ukraine wants.
Ukraine additionally has two commercially acquired spy satellites, manufactured by Finnish firm ICEYE. One was purchased by a nonprofit, the opposite offered by the German authorities and German weapons maker Rheinmetall.
However even with these, it’s unlikely that Ukraine or Europe will be capable of fill the hole left by the US intelligence sharing pause, say consultants.
“Europe doesn’t have the intelligence capabilities that Ukraine receives from the US,” mentioned Miron, including that this minimize can have a direct impact on the battlefield. The US has “a monopoly on navy satellites and on intelligence”, she added.
In February 2022, Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned Starlink was activated in Ukraine after the invasion disrupted web connectivity. Miron defined that the Ukrainian navy additionally depends on Starlink for “communications, tactical reconnaissance and using FPV [first-person view] drones”.
On February 20, US negotiators instructed Kyiv that they’d shut off Starlink if Ukraine didn’t attain a deal on crucial minerals, the Reuters information company reported quoting an nameless supply who was briefed on the talks. The uncommon earth minerals deal would enable the US to put money into Ukraine’s assets.
Musk is a detailed ally of Trump.
Miron mentioned the capabilities that the Ukrainian navy has on account of Starlink are additionally “troublesome to match” although French satellite tv for pc operator Eutelsat has supplied a substitute for sure defence functions. Whereas Starlink has 7,000 low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, Eutelsat has about 630, supported by 35 satellites in greater orbits.
