DENVER – The final time the Broncos beat the Chiefs, Taylor Swift topped the billboard charts with “Shake it Off” and “The Equalizer” was packing theatres.
That was Sept. 14, 2014.
Flash ahead to Sunday. Swift is not going to be in Denver to see Travis Kelce, “Equalizer 3” is on the market on demand and snow has determined to take middle stage. Denver obtained a number of inches Saturday night time and temperatures determine to settle within the 20s throughout the recreation with flurries up till the two:25 p.m. kickoff.
It’s not like Broncos Nation may really feel extra chilly and bitter watching their staff vs. the defending champion Chiefs. Kansas Metropolis owns a 16-game successful streak vs. Denver, the third longest streak vs. an opponent in NFL historical past (Miami owns the document at 20 video games vs. the Payments).
Denver boasts a 2-5 document with the commerce deadline looming at 2 p.m. on Tuesday. Would a victory reframe expectations and make the Broncos reluctant to deal? They’ve been open for enterprise – common supervisor George Paton takes and makes as many calls as anybody – however have excessive calls for for gamers like Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Josey Jewell, and Justin Simmons.
The Broncos held agency to wanting a primary rounder for Jeudy final October and this spring. There’s no method they get that again now, however would they take a 3rd and a fifth? And Sutton may web a fourth or fifth – his contract is problematic – and is that sufficient to give up the staff’s finest purple zone menace? Transferring Jewell would create enjoying time for rookie Drew Sanders. And a Jeudy commerce would facilitate extra snaps for explosive receiver Marvin Mims Jr.
The Broncos should not transferring cornerback Patrick Surtain II until a staff desires to give up a number of first-round picks and extra (consider the Jalen Ramsey commerce to the Rams from the Jaguars). It’s rising doubtless Denver makes at commerce – Von Miller and Bradley Chubb have been shipped out on the deadline the previous couple of years. This staff must hit the reset button and add extra younger expertise. However the Broncos should not conducting on a yard sale, needing actual draft cache, not a gaggle of sixth and seventh-round picks. All that stated, a win vs. the Chiefs would soothe lingering wounds even when doesn’t imply something on the finish of the season.
My Denver7 keys to victory:
Run it again
The Broncos rank fourth in yards per try (5.1) and 24th in carries. The maths doesn’t add up. It’s time for the Broncos to run it again. And run it extra. The Chiefs protection has by no means been higher throughout the Patrick Mahomes’ time in Kansas Metropolis, saying one thing since he has topped Denver 12 straight occasions, whereas going 29-3 within the AFC West. However the Chiefs are simply OK vs. floor assaults, permitting 105.7 yards per recreation. Javonte Williams posted a season-high 82 yards final week. He’s getting stronger and quicker. Feed him and Jaleel McLaughlin (6.9 yards per try).
Management the clock
Successful time of possession by no means hurts in opposition to the Chiefs. Sometimes, NFL groups need huge strikes, selection. However the 10 play, 75-yard drives are a methodical method of staying inside attain of the Chiefs by enjoying keepaway from Mahomes. Denver has rushed 46 % of the time the previous two weeks. Don’t be afraid to make it 50 % on Sunday.
Take it away, now
The best strategy to know if a staff wins an NFL recreation: test the turnover battle. Win in takeaways and win on Sunday. That’s the method. And Denver has not adopted it. The Broncos are -4 in turnover margin, rating 26th. The Chiefs are even at zero. The Chiefs don’t fumble, however Mahomes will put the ball in hurt’s method vs. Denver. His 9 interceptions in opposition to the Broncos are his most in opposition to any opponent.
Plan for Kelce
Mahomes is the grasp at manipulating zones. He’s so instinctive that it appears like he’s synchronized along with his receivers. Travis Kelce embodies this. In his choice routes, he’s a unicorn, stopping in locations the place nobody does, sprinting to areas nobody goes. It’s time to attempt one thing completely different. Corridor of Famer Steve Atwater advised me he desires Denver to attempt to be extra bodily with Kelce on the line of scrimmage and blend in man matchups, even perhaps with Patrick Surtain II or Fabian Moreau.
Play clear in Snow
The best strategy to lose to good groups: stub your toe. The Broncos have dedicated 48 penalties, rating 29th. There’s no likelihood of beating Kansas Metropolis with no clear recreation – like three or 4 penalties, and none on third down to finish or lengthen drives.
Go deep, Mims
The humorous factor about snow is that offenses often have the benefit. The offensive gamers know the place they’re going, whereas defensive gamers are reacting. If the Broncos run as they hope, it is going to open play-action strikes. A 50-yarder to Marvin Mims Jr. may change the sport. He has been a ghost the previous three weeks – he has one catch for 4 yards on two targets – and that can’t proceed if the Broncos wish to pull off the upset.
The place there’s a Wil
Wil Lutz has transformed 12 straight kicks since lacking within the opener in opposition to the Raiders. Earlier than the sport, the Broncos want to determine his vary within the wind and snow. However wouldn’t or not it’s one thing if he nailed a 50-yarder to place a stick within the Kansas Metropolis curse?
Troy’s prediction: Chiefs 26, Broncos 20
