On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a long-awaited assembly with US President Donald Trump in an try to influence him to proceed US assist for Ukraine. The encounter was doubtless not what the Ukrainian head of state had anticipated.
Trump and US Vice President JD Vance chastised Zelenskyy in entrance of TV cameras for being “disrespectful” and for refusing to embrace their initiative for a ceasefire with Russia.
It’s evident that Zelenskyy is not going to make a return to Washington throughout Trump’s presidency. It’s also evident that US strain on Ukraine will considerably escalate within the following weeks and months, as Trump presses Kyiv to make vital concessions to Russia in return for peace.
Even earlier than the showdown on the White Home, the Trump administration was questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and pushing for presidential elections to be held. Holding a rushed election with the only real function of eliminating the incumbent, nonetheless, may spell catastrophe for the nation.
Earlier than Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, approval scores for Zelenskyy’s presidency have been as little as 28 p.c and 11 p.c for his occasion. Russia’s full-scale invasion despatched Ukrainians rallying behind the president and his recognition reached report highs. Nonetheless, over the previous two years, his approval scores have been on a constant decline. Based on polls, belief in Zelenskyy fell from 54 p.c in April 2024 to 49 p.c in January – not as little as Trump has claimed, however a far cry from his 90 p.c score in Might 2022.
A number of components have contributed to Zelenskyy’s declining recognition, together with rampant corruption beneath his administration and the rising fatigue from the continuing warfare.
The Ukrainian president – effectively conscious of his vulnerability – has made clear that he’s not comfy with competitors. For him, the stakes are excessive as a result of if he have been to lose a re-election bid, he may face prosecution for corruption or varied types of retribution from his rivals. The polls are already displaying that if elections have been to be held instantly, he would lose.
A formidable challenger to Zelenskyy has already emerged: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star normal who served as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces till February 2024. Polls present that Zaluzhnyi – if he have been to run in a presidential vote – would defeat Zelenskyy. Public belief in him is among the many highest and stood at 72 p.c in January.
Though Zaluzhnyi was dismissed by the president on the heels of the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, there have been speculations that his recognition in Ukraine could have additionally been an element. The final was despatched overseas to function the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK – a place he nonetheless occupies.
To this point, Zaluzhnyi has not declared an intention to run, though there are not any ensures he wouldn’t change his thoughts. If he stays out, different navy figures, reminiscent of Kyrylo Budanov, could step in.
Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, has a public belief score of 62 p.c. He just lately disappeared from the general public eye after a yr of high-profile media appearances. Rumours have unfold that Zelenskyy’s workplace deliberate to take away him, leading to his sudden retreat. However he could effectively reappear as soon as the marketing campaign begins.
Boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk may develop into a possible darkish horse. In a rustic the place a former comic turned president, a victorious athlete doesn’t seem to be an unlikely contender. Though he has not made any political ambitions public, he has began showing in polls and his score at present stands at 60 p.c.
Then there may be former President Petro Poroshenko, who has low approval scores, however stays a harmful rival to Zelenskyy. Since 2019, greater than 130 legal circumstances have been launched in opposition to him – together with one accusing him of treason for approving a coal-supplying scheme from the Russian-occupied Donbas area.
Poroshenko is an outspoken critic of Zelenskyy and isn’t hiding his political ambitions. He has travelled to the US and met with Trump’s workforce. In February, when he tried to go to the Munich Safety Convention, he was not allowed. He now faces state-imposed sanctions on “nationwide safety grounds”, which embrace an asset freeze.
The message of the sanctions is obvious: Poroshenko shall be eradicated from the presidential race earlier than it even begins. On this context of perceived political persecution, different potential challengers haven’t come ahead, being too afraid to run.
There was rising concern over Zelenskyy’s dealing with of opposition figures, however to this point, no sturdy public rebuke has emerged from his allies. After the confrontation on the White Home, European leaders expressed assist for him. This has given Zelenskyy a short lived increase at dwelling, however it’s unclear how lengthy it may maintain.
Aside from the bitter political rivalries and retribution, the Ukrainian political scene can also be marked by persevering with divisions inside society. The warfare has intensified feelings and break up the nation proper down the center, making a unstable state of affairs.
The ultranationalists not solely maintain sway amongst sure components of the inhabitants but additionally are empowered as lively members within the warfare. There’s additionally nonetheless a portion of society that leans pro-Russian and doesn’t need the battle to proceed.
If an election is imposed from overseas on this unstable state of affairs, it may show extra catastrophic than Russia’s invasion or the lack of Ukraine’s industrial heartlands. The hazard isn’t simply {that a} third of the inhabitants can be unable to vote and the election’s legitimacy could also be in query.
The true menace is that the vote may ignite a combat of all in opposition to all earlier than a single poll is forged. An incumbent who fears dropping a re-election bid and political rivals who’re hellbent on regaining relevance could resort to exploiting societal divisions. The navy and safety businesses could possibly be compelled to behave, which provides to a probably explosive combine.
If presidential elections can dangerously polarise societies at peace – as we’ve seen in america – they will do a lot worse in instances of warfare. A rushed election in Ukraine that serves the political plans of a international energy is definitely a recipe for catastrophe. A vote must be held as soon as there’s a sturdy ceasefire that permits for all Ukrainians to forged their votes with out worry of the prospect of polarisation and battle.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
