New York Instances: “Whereas election polling has been round for greater than a century, election forecasts have come to the forefront solely previously decade and a half. And whereas polls are meant to supply a snapshot in time, taking the heart beat of how People are feeling a few race, forecasts go a step additional, analyzing the polling and different information to make a prediction about who’s more than likely to win, and the way probably.”
“However this 12 months, with the polls already exhibiting a razor-thin presidential race, the forecasts usually indicated that the race was tied nationally or in swing states, or they gave one candidate or the opposite solely a slight edge.”
“These outcomes increase the query: What’s the worth of those election forecasts? Proponents say they assist synthesize the obtainable info and that extra information is healthier than much less. Additionally they argue that the forecasts this 12 months carried out properly, typically — capturing the uncertainty of an in depth race, whereas holding out for the likelihood that Donald Trump might sweep the swing states, as he did.”
“However critics say forecasts add extra noise than sign — and should even be doing hurt.”
